e rainfall. But forecasters warned that this does not mean that the UK will escape some heavy downpours at times. Ewen McCallum, chief meteorologist at the Met Office, said: After two disappointingly wet summers, the signs are much more promising this year. We can expect t
imes when temperatures will be above 30C, something we hardly saw at all last year. The Met Office said that while there may be showers, a repeat of the wet summer s of 2007 and 2008 is unlikely. McCallum said the cool, windy and wet summer of last year hit the pits on the misery forecast but said he was quite optimistic about the summer to come. “Prolonged spells of warm weather are more likely, he said. He also said the temperature differential between Spain and the UK was likely to close, but warned that while there was a two in three chance the forecast would be right, therefore there was a one in three chance it would be wrong. He said a period of much higher pressure over the UK and Europe, a warm phase in the tropical Pacific region, and a weakening of the weather phenomenon known as La Nina - in which cold water rises to the surface and cools ocean and land temperatures - all pointed to a warm dry summer. Mr McCallum said the forecast was based on probab新老版跑狗图每期更新 ilities which showed there w
as a 50% chance of the temperatures in June, July and August being above average, a 30% chance they would be average and a 20% chance they would be below average. The average temperature for the summer season, based on records for 1971 to 2000, is 14.1C (57.4F), with an avera
ge of 227mm of rainfall. He urged caution over seasonal forecasts but said that a previous decade-long projection showed that, after 2009, half the years were likely to be warmer than the record summer of 1998, which saw an average temperature of 14.52C (58.1F). He also said the heatwaves of 2003 were seen as part of quite an extreme summer , but added: In a global warming trend, in 50 years time I think that will become quite a normal summer. Pat Boyle, public weather service manager for the Met Office, also warned there were caveats to the forecast. This is not a forecast for a particular day, she said. And it doesnt pick out extremes. We could have a parti
cularly hot spell for a very short time or a particularly wet spell for a very short time. She said she ho
ped it would encourage Britons not to travel and to boost UK tourism by taking their holidays in the country this summer. She also said th
e forecasts were more useful for e
mergency planners and the water industry rather than people in the UK planning their summer holidays.